what are you doing to yourself ?
Agency: GPY&R, Sydney/Australia
Photographer: Gary Sheppard
via Advertnews.com by admin on 2/3/09
the Empiricist-in-Chief
Following up on yesterday's post about quantifying political speech, Dartmouth's Michael Herron - who is a first-rate political scientist and data hound - points out that Obama was the first president to speak about "data" in his inaugural address, and only the second to mention "statistics."
via Freakonomics by By Justin Wolfers on 2/26/09
the UK post office's new model comes quite close to ecologisca's
Matter is a box full of nice things delivered to you on a Saturday morning. Inside the box is a selection of items from different companies-which might be useful, entertaining or just fun.
The Royal Mail is sending out a box of free stuff which it called "Matter". Last time it contained DVDs, candybars, a SIM card CDs and a few other goodies, of which first batch was sent out in December to about 30,000 people.
They are describing it as "a new approach to direct mail" where you try the free goodies, maybe give some to your friends and eventually stay as a loyal customer. No brainer.
Ecologisca's proposal of eradicating advertisers' blanketing the largest market audience possible with a given campaign follows a similar business model. Its concept of democratizing its consumers for the benefit of being able to ultimately sell anything at no charge would rather draw upon the "customers implicit and explicit connections for efficient ad targeting augmentation and relevancy."
In effect, it would even be more efficient than the Royal Mail's customers' task of having to intentionally sign up for "Matter."
estimating the value of an idea
(audio)
So you have a great idea. How big is it? What is the value of the idea to the organization? Most people get hung up trying to come up with the exact answer. In most cases, you won't find the perfect answer. Especially if you are breaking new ground. What I find lacking is the basic skill of "estimation". Estimating is nothing more than using the information you know to create a "good enough" approximation of the market opportunity for an idea.
The objective is not the find the answer but to find out what makes up the answer. So what are the steps?
- Take the question (how big is the total number of customers for my idea?)
- Break down the drivers that allow you to estimate the answer to the question.
- For each driver create an educated estimate of its value
- Create the estimated answer to the question
You're not done yet ... You need to estimate when the value will be realized.
- Determine the total life cycle of your idea (2 years, 5 years, 10 years, etc)
- Spread that time line evenly over the five phases of "innovation adoption"
- Apply the adoption rate for each phase based on Rogers rules ..
- 2.5% for Innovators
- 13.5% for Early Adaptors
- 34% for Early Majority
- 34% for Late Majority
- 16% for Laggards
You're not done yet ... Now you have the total value. You need to determine the value to you and your organization.
- For each phase, apply your estimated market share. Be realistic ...
- Apply some estimated revenue per unit/customer.
Now you have the estimated value of an idea.
To learn the rest, listen to the podcast ...
via Killer Innovations by Phil McKinney on 1/19/09
trying to make sense out of it all
From the issue of Wired that will be coming out in a week or so, this is one of those “Statgeist” funny infographics in the Start section. Think about it. It actually works incredibly well on all levels (the insult to the editor-in-chief notwithstanding):
via The Long Tail by Chris Anderson on 1/8/09
obama and the year in photographs
2008 has been an eventful year to say the least - it is difficult to sum up the thousands of stories in just a handful of photographs. That said, I will try to do what I've done with other photo narratives here, and tell a story of 2008 in photographs. ...
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama waves to the crowd at a rally in the rain at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Va. Saturday, Sept. 27, 2008. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
via The Big Picture on 12/19/08
disruptive innovation
A couple of years ago I first heard the story of Markus Frind, the founder of dating website PlentyofFish.com who, it was said, worked about an hour a day on his site and was making $10,000 a month. That was annoying enough. Now, a recent profile of Frind in Inc. magazine says Frind works an hour a day and brings in $10 million a year.
I bring this up not to annoy you, but to point out that Frind has built his fortune mainly by following the disruptive playbook. His “blueprint,” as he described it to Inc.: “Pick a market in which the competition charges money for its service, build a lean operation with a "dead simple" free website, and pay for it using Google AdSense.”
via Innoblog by Renee Hopkins Callahan on 1/13/09
vienna's heurigen
Vienna is the only metropolis in the world that cultivates wine within its city limits. Where best to enjoy the local harvest than at heurige, local wine taverns? What used to be a shack in a vineyard or a few tables by a wine press have now evolved into bobo wine estates with organic barbecues and fussy designer wine cellars serving nouvelle cuisine viennoise.
These days, Viennese heurige are shaking off their rustic image as tourist traps in disguise and venues for day-tripping retirees…
Good traditional heurige still exist though they are increasingly rare, while many deliberately court younger cosmopolitan Viennese who are no longer content with sour Grüne Veltliner wine and stale dark bread. Two driving forces behind the new popularity of the heurige culture are the next generation of ambitious young vintners and the renaissance of the beisl (Viennese restaurant) cuisine. Witness, for example, the revival of the Grinzing area, for years the ending point of tourist bus fleets, now boasting several gourmet restaurants as well as organic wine cultivation.
One of the greatest charms of heurige is the al fresco setting, be it on a green meadow overlooking the city or in a grapevine-trellised courtyard shaded by ancient chestnut trees. As such, summer is the perfect time to visit heurige, when balmy evenings under the stars could only be complemented by bottomless carafes of good wine.
The ultimate Viennese chill-out, if you will.
via Vienna - unlike on 9/19/08
markets in everything: Hurling Shoes
At least one stimulus plan appears to be working.
The shoe hurled at President George W. Bush has sent sales soaring at the Turkish maker as orders pour in from Iraq, the U.S. (!, AT) and Iran.
The brown, thick-soled “Model 271” may soon be renamed “The Bush Shoe” or “Bye-Bye Bush,” Ramazan Baydan, who owns the Istanbul-based producer Baydan Ayakkabicilik San. & Tic., said in a telephone interview today.
“We’ve been selling these shoes for years but, thanks to Bush, orders are flying in like crazy,” he said. “We’ve even hired an agency to look at television advertising.”
Hat tip: Mahalanobis.
via Marginal Revolution by Alex Tabarrok on 12/20/08
